Montana Main Street Blog

Another Representative for Montana Unlikely

I had a post on this subject a year and a half ago when the 2006 population estimates were released. Montana was estimated to have the 19th fastest growing population. I've seen new statistics today showing were more like 24th in the country between 2000 and 2006.

I'm no mathematician. I realize that that we don't necessarily need large growth to regain the congressional seat we lost after the 1990 census. We may need to grow a lot less than other states since we are always so close to having that second seat. In 2000, we were less than 8200 away from taking it back. Due to growth around the country, (only North Dakota and Louisiana have lost population), we will need much more than that by 2010.

Anyone with more of a statistics background have some insight into this?

Department of Revenue Wishlist

Last month, the Montana Department of Revenue released its tentative legislative agenda for the 2009 legislative session. What's so interesting about this agenda? The lack of just about every failed DOR proposal from the 2005 regular session, the 2007 regular and the first 2007 special session.

You may recall that many of the DOR proposals were aimed at going after "tax cheaters." After reading the fine print in these bills, it was clear that many of these proposals would have raised taxes on businesses, forced other business to do the work of the department, and generally made our state tax code even more complicated for all Montanans. Most people are looking for simpler tax code.

While the goal of making everyone pay their fair share is an important one, the legislature (on multiple occasions) saw these proposals were fatally flawed in their approach to tackling the problem.

I suspect that the absence of these proposals on the department's agenda for the next session is more about a strategy change than anything else. Instead of having the administration lead the charge on these proposals, the department will most likely find legislators to bring the old proposals forward while the department acts as more of a cheerleader, rather than the champion.

New Study on Montana's Legal System

The U.S. Chamber's Institute for Legal Reform has released a new 50-state study on state "lawsuit climate." Montana came in 38th, which is up two points from last year's ranking. Not sure whether that was due to Montana's legal climate improving, or if a few other states just moved in the wrong direction.

The business attorneys who took the survey were asked to give states a grade ("A", "B", "C", "D" or "F") in each of the following areas: having and enforcing meaningful venue requirements, overall treatment of tort and contract litigation, treatment of class action suits and mass consolidation suits, punitive damages, timeliness of summary judgment or dismissal, discovery, scientific and technical evidence, non-economic damages, judges' impartiality and competence, and juries' predictability and fairness.

Compared to most of Montana's neighbors in the west, we are behind. Utah is 5th, Colorado is 9th, South Dakota is 12th, North Dakota is 13th, Oregon is 14th, Arizona is 15th, Alaska is 20th, Wyoming is 23rd, Idaho is 26th, Washington is 27th, and New Mexico is 37th. I guess we can take pride in beating Nevada (40th) and California (44th), but that's a little hard to do when so many western states are ahead of us.

The Montana Chamber, along with many other groups, will bring forward pro-active legal reform ideas to the 2009 legislature that will improve our judicial system and discourage lawsuit abuse. We can do better. 

The Clinton Conspiracy Continues...

My first post on the Clinton sabotage theory was March 28th. Last week I found some comments from a Congressman who also has bought into the theory.

Now famous political consultant, Dick Morris, (also a famous Hillary-hater) has a whole article on the idea that Clinton knows she can't win the nomination so she is tarnishing Obama's image to make him unelectable in November. This will allow her to make a "you-should-have-nominated-me" comeback in 2012.

Covering the Uninsured in Montana

This week is "Cover the Uninsured Week," which is good timing to announce some great developments with our own association health plan called "Chamber Choices."

Chamber Choices is now covering over 20,000 lives!  Close to half of these customers previously had no health insurance coverage. Thousands of these new insureds are children. This is all done without using public funds.

Small businesses with 1 to 99 employees can take part in the plan, which means that thousands of small businesses are benefiting from the plan as well. In most cases, small businesses want to offer health insurance for their employees, but they find it almost impossible to keep up with the unpredictable rate increases. In the four years of Chamber Choices, we have been able to keep the general rate increases in the single digits (good for health insurance these days).

If you think about it, 20,000 people is more than 2% of Montana's state population. We are very pleased with the growth. As the pool continues to grow, it will only increase the stability and strength from year to year.

Sabotage Follow-up

Three weeks ago, I had this post where I wondered out loud about the possibility that Hillary Clinton knows she can't win, so she is paving the way for a 2012 run by sabotaging Obama's chances this November. At least one congressman is thinking the same thing:

"The Clintons know that she can't win this. But they're hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win."

-- House Democratic Whip James Clyburn of South Carolina saying that many African-Americans believe the Clintons are intentionally trying to hurt Obama's image and prepare for her to make another White House run in 2012.

I Love Maps

I case you haven't noticed, I love political maps. CQ Politics has a good collection of maps showing congressional, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections in 2008. Use the tabs at the top to find the different maps.

Montana's congressional seat is listed as "Safe Republican." Montana's senate seat is listed as "Safe Democrat." Montana's governor's seat is listed as "Favored Democrat," but I think their information on this race may be a little outdated. It talks about "next year's election," but the election is this year and Roy Brown, who is a top-tier GOP candidate, is in the race.

Getting Old in Montana

Aging - we're all doing it. The fact that we get older every year is not a new trend. But, the fact that our country, and Montana especially, is seeing our average age rise means we are going to face some new problems in the coming decades. In 2012, more people will be leaving the workforce than entering it. Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are expected to take a majority of the federal budget. Schools are seeing declining enrollments.

The Revenue and Transportation Committee has tentatively agreed to start a study of how Montana's aging population will affect revenues down the road and increase the need for services under current obligation levels. The Montana Chamber and a few other organizations have agreed to fund a portion of the study. Our involvement in the project ends when we cut the check. We will certainly be interested in the findings of the study, but we will play no role in formulating the study or providing information.

I was a little worried that some lawmakers were looking to derail the study because they were afraid of what the results may show. In the end, a bi-partisan majority of the committee agreed to go forward with the study and seek the approval of another interim committee, Legislative Finance. When the study is released after November 15th, we will give you our opinions on the results and possible solutions to any problems Montana may face as a result of an overall older population.

New Study: Montana Businesses Pay More Taxes

The Council on State Taxation (COST) recently released a new 50-state study on the total state and local business taxes paid in 2007. The results show that Montana businesses, compared to other states, pay more in state and local taxes. Here are a few facts from the study:

1. State taxes paid by businesses in Montana (45% share) are higher than the national average (39.9% share).

2. Local taxes paid by businesses in Montana (66.5% share) are higher than the national average (50.5%).

3. The amount of state and local taxes paid by businesses in Montana as a percentage of the Gross State Product (6.5%) is higher than the national average (5%).

4. The total change in business share of the tax growth in Montana (55.6%) is higher than the national average (45.8%).

The next time you hear someone talk about Montana businesses paying their fair share, you'll can say they are already carrying a heavier burden than most other states. To view the study, click here: Download fy07_business_tax_burden_study.pdf

"Walmart Women" and the 2008 General Election

In 1996 it was soccer moms. In 2000 and 2004 it was NASCAR dads. Now, in 2008, "Walmart Women" have been identified as the key to election victories in November.

Hat tip to Political Wire.