Montana Main Street Blog

Re-Elect Numbers Bad for Incumbents

A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has bad news for congressional incumbents. Just over a third of people (38%) would vote to re-elect their own representative, while almost half (49%) would rather put in someone new. That doesn't have anything to do with being a Republican or Democrat. It's simply voters' feelings regarding incumbents.

Our own P-base poll showed similar results for Montana legislative incumbents. In the poll of 600 Montana voters (4.1% margin of error) last month, 34% were willing to re-elect their current legislator, while 46% wanted to look at someone new. That is the lowest re-elect numbers we've seen in the history of the P-base poll.

Are voters mad as hell and ready to say they aren't going to take it anymore?  There is still almost eleven months to go before November of 2010, so much can change. Right now, though, it doesn't look good for people who are currently serving in public office.

New Poll Out on Montanans' Views of Economy, Business and Elections

 

Poll Shows Pulse of Montana Voters

Respondents Give Answers on Economic, Political and Business Issues

The Power Base (P-Base) is an annual scientific poll of 600 Montana voters on a variety of business and political issues with a margin of error of 4.1%. The poll is commissioned by the Montana Chamber of Commerce and other business groups to determine what regular Montanans think about important economic issues facing our state. Here are some of the results:

Economic Development

The unemployment levels are a top concern for Montanans. 40% listed it as the top problem facing our state, and the next highest problem, health care, was a third of that level at 15%. Montanans want to get back to work, and they are looking for businesses, not government, to provide the jobs.

As in prior surveys, the P-base shows Montanans want to see more business growth, especially in high wage businesses like the natural resource industries. For example, 78% of Montana voters want the state to encourage more timber harvesting, 76% want more oil & gas development, 71% want more coal development and 70% want more mining. Almost two-thirds of Montanans say the state Land Board should go forward with the Otter Creek coal tracts leasing as well, which is an issue the Board will take up at its December 21^st meeting.

“The message from the survey is clear: Montanans want to see the state move towards long-term, sustainable growth by increasing natural resource development, improving our business climate, and creating more good-paying jobs,” said Jon Bennion, Government Relations Director for the Montana Chamber.”

Montanans are still pessimistic about the national economy. 53% of voters believe the U.S.’s economy is on the wrong track as opposed to 24% who think we are on the right track. Voters believe the state’s economy is better off with 41% saying we’re on the right track versus 34% saying wrong track. 

Health Care

Respondents in the poll expressed significant satisfaction levels with their own health care insurance. Almost three-quarters of those polled (74%) said they were satisfied, while only 15% said they were dissatisfied. Half of Montanans want Washington, D.C. to scrap the current health care proposals and draft new legislation that would address rising costs.

Concerns of Voters

The P-base is also a good opportunity to see what financial concerns are on the minds of voters. For the fourth straight year, health care costs continue to be a top concern at 24% and high taxes came in second at 18%. Additionally, addressing the unemployment situation is the top issue (18%) voters want addressed in the coming elections, and health care (17%) is a not-so-distant second concern of voters at 15%. 59% said government in general is getting too involved and spending too much money, while only 31% said government wasn’t doing enough on issues like education, health care and the environment. 

Elections

When it comes to candidate endorsements, voters respect candidates who get stamps of approval from business groups, like chambers of commerce, agriculture groups and more.

When asked whether a Montana Chamber endorsement of a candidate would influence their voter, 51% of voters said it would have a positive effect compared with only 16% who said it would have a negative effect (35% net postitive). Even more popular are agriculture groups with 68% positive to only 7% negative (61% net positive). Trial lawyers (-40% net negative), environmental groups (-18% net negative) and labor unions (-9% net negative) scored low in the poll.

When asked about the upcoming elections for the Montana state legislature, voters are more likely (46%) to want to replace their local legislator rather than re-elect them (34%). Additionally, Republicans have a slight edge going into the legislative elections. 32% prefer GOP candidates for the legislature while 25% prefer Democrats.

“Candidates for the legislature need to focus on the economy, jobs, and growing the business sector,” explained Bennion, “Voters are worried about how much the government is trying to do, so candidates need to offer solutions that center around responsible development of our natural resources, controlling government deficits, and free enterprise.”

2009 Election Analysis and 2010 Preview for Montana

GOPers are celebrating and predicting 2010 gains while Dems are largely dismissing the results as unimportant losses based on local factors. I think it's somewhere in between.

As most Democrats point out, these elections aren't always the best indicators of what will happen a year from now. A year is a lifetime in politics. So much can happen with the economy (good and bad), the war on terror, and big issues like health care reform, cap-and-trade and card check. Plus, NJ Democratic Governor Corzine was damaged goods and the Creigh Deeds, the Viriginia Democratic candidate for governor, ran a weak campaign.

But that cannot explain away the decisive results of these two elections. Something was energizing the Republican base, which hasn't happened since 2004. In short, Republicans aren't necessarily inspired to vote for Republicans, but they are getting ticked off at what is happening in Washington. This discontent is translating into higher participation from the GOP base, while loyal Democrats are seemingly uninspired. If this continues, Democrats should be concerned about noticeable losses in 2010.

In Montana, without a big race (I predict Rehberg will do well again) to draw independent voters, the 2010 legislative races will be about which party can get more of their base to show up. In 1998, the last time the U.S. House race was the top race, Montana saw its lowest voter turnout ever. If the GOP base continues to have big concerns about national developments, that may bring more Republicans out to vote in legislative elections while Democrats may be more likely to stay at home.

The question remains, however, if the Republican base will continue to stay energized. Polls show that Republicans don't really even like their own GOP leaders, so gains will have to come from their distaste of the Democratic agenda. If the economy gets worse, that may get more independents out to vote. When it comes to swing voters, it's still the economy, stupid.

Voting Fail

This Election Day image is brought to you courtesy of www.failblog.org:

Come back tomorrow for commentary on today's elections in MT, NY, NJ, and VA, and a 2010 Election preview.

Chamber to Host Campaign Schools

Every election year the Montana Chamber teams up with the Montana Electric Cooperative Association and the Montana Credit Union Network to host a series of non-partisan campaign schools around the state. We are still getting some of the details worked out, but we have some dates and locations set:

January 26th - Great Falls @ the Montana Electric Cooperative Association Headquarters

January 27th - Missoula @ the Hilton Garden Inn

January 28th - Bozeman @ the Hilton Garden Inn

January 29th - Billings @ the Hilton Garden Inn

If you are thinking about running for office (local, legislative or statewide), if you think you may run for office some day, or even if you plan on volunteering on someone's campaign, this school is a great place to learn about the fundamental elements of a successful campaign. Topics covered include development of a plan, media/communications, fundraising, following campaign laws, getting out the vote and more.

For more information on the schools, contact Sharon at sharonm@mtco-ops.com.

2010 U.S. House Race in Montana a Snoozer

CQ Politics has released its list of the most competitive congressional races for the 2010 cycle. Montana is not one of them. The lone seat, held by five-term incumbent Denny Rebherg, is listed as "safe." It's a little more than a year before the election, and that can be a lifetime in politics. But something really bad would have to happen for Rehberg to make this race competitive. The only other statewide race next cycle is for a single Montana Supreme Court spot, currently held by Justice Leaphart. It is unknown whether he will run for reelection.

Looks like the real races will be in competitive seats for Montana's Legislature. It's also quite likely that we'll see some interesting ballot initiatives.

Another Montana Primary Upset in the Works?

In 2008, politicos were shocked when two unknown, obscure candidates beat establishment candidates and emerged as the winners of their respective races. Perennial candidate Bob Kelleher won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and John Driscoll won the Democratic nomination for U.S. House.

Fundraising numbers for the second quarter were just released in the 2010 contest for U.S. House, and it looks like another upset may be in the works in one of the primaries. Incumbent Denny Rehberg has done quite well and will probably face no primary opponent on the GOP side. On the Democratic side, state Democratic Party chair Dennis MacDonald will face off against a young, relatively unknown Missoula lawyer, Tyler Gernant. In the second quarter, Gernant outraised MacDonald by more than $10,000. Could this 20-something challenger take out the establishment candidate?

MacDonald probably isn't too worried about the money issue. He is a fairly wealthy former trial lawyer who can probably afford to throw in some bucks of his own. Still, this may turn into more of a race than he'd like.

Will Montana Go Blue in 2012?

If Obama can hold on to some of this big states he grabbed in the 2008 election, Montana is poised to become his biggest target to flip in 2012. Montana narrowly supported McCain, but it was the most competitive presidential contest our state had seen since the 1992 election. McCain ended up with 49.7% of the vote, while Obama was right behind with 47.2%.

47.2% for a Democratic candidate for president is good in Montana. Although we gave Clinton our electoral votes in 1992, he only won a plurality when Ross Perot took a good chunk away from George H. W. Bush. The last Democratic presidential candidate we gave a majority to was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So, Obama's plan to target Montana after just a narrow loss is probably a smart move.

It's pretty early to start talking about targeted states, however. Obama hasn't quite finished his first six months in office. Elections start earlier each cycle, but there are so many things that could happen before we get to 2012. First, and foremost, is what happens with the economy. If the economy doesn't show significant improvement after the large amounts spent on stimulus, this could be trouble for Obama in Montana. In addition, it's very likely that Obama will encounter a big new foreign policy problem, like North Korean aggression or problems with Iran. Perhaps "new" isn't the right word - maybe escalating. And as the article points out, he can't look to left when it comes to environmental issues and gun issues.

And don't forget we have one big thing before the next presidential election. It's called 2010!

Election 2010: Who Will Control the Montana Senate?

In the Montana state Senate there are 15 open Senate seats due to term limits, which is almost a full third of that body that is guaranteed not to be back in 2011. There could be more depending on people who decide not to run again or who are defeated for reelection in the primary or general election.

 

A staggering 10 Republicans senators are term-limited. All of those senators are in leaning to solid Republican seats. Five Democrats are term limited. Unlike last session where Democrats had to play defense, Republicans will have to work hard to maintain their majority in the state Senate.

 

The two biggest battlegrounds for the 2010 election will be in District 25 in Billings (Roy Brown) and District 39 (Terry Murphy). District 25 is a Democratic leaning area, so Brown will have to work hard for reelection. Representative Kendall Van Dyk is rumored to be mulling a potential challenge. District 39 is a toss-up seat with a history of supporting Republican candidates. It is unknown whether Murphy will run for reelection, but term-limited Representative Jill Cohenour is expected to run for that seat. Her husband ran against Murphy and lost in 2006.

 

Other possible battlegrounds may develop depending on what challengers come forward, what issues are hot next year, fundraising, and good old fashioned hard work. These seats include: District 17 – Seat of term-limited Senator Ken Hansen (D); District 29 – Seat of term-limited Senator Dan McGee (R); District 12 – Seat of Senator Mitch Tropila (D); and District 13 – Seat of term-limited Senator Joe Tropila.

 

So who will control the state Senate in 2011? Democrats have a decent shot at tying things up 25-25 if they take advantage of some of these opportunities. If not, Republicans can still look forward to having a very slim majority.

Employee Forced Choice Act Hits Congress

Kudos to the Billings Gazette editorial board members who recognize the irony in a union bill (Card Check) that takes away a worker's right. Also, check out the letter to the editor from the President/CEO of the Billings Chamber who also weighed in on the card check bill that was introduced in the House and Senate this week.

The Montana Chamber submitted an op-ed of it's own yesterday, so make sure to be on the lookout for that piece. There is a lot of chatter about this issue including Obama's reassurance of his support, the lack of co-sponsorship from Senator Baucus and Senator Tester (who were co-sponsors last session), a few Southern Democrats who have expressed a lack of enthusiasm for the idea, and Senator McCaskill's opinion that Democrats didn't have the votes to close off debate in the Senate. In addition, I'm reading a thorough study that was done that shows huge negative economic consequences if card check is passed. I'll do a summary of it as soon as I finish it.

There will be a lot more information, debate and grassroots over the next month or so to stop this anti-business, anti-worker bill.