Montana Main Street Blog

Targeted Legislative Seats for 2010

You may have noticed our months of non-blogging. Although there was no legislative session in 2010, we have kept very busy this past winter. Blogging fell to the bottom of the priority list.

We're back now, and we've updated our "Targeted Legislative Seats" page now that filing season has concluded. If a district made it on the list, it does not mean the Montana Chamber is targeting the race. We are simply making educated guesses about the legislative seats that both parties are likely to target. Check out the list here.

Take a moment to look at the list and tell us how we are wrong (or correct). Did we leave one off the list that should be there? Is the a race on the list that will not be competitive? Did we provide any wrong information that needs to be corrected? We would love to hear your thoughts on some of these races, including any inside scoop you may have on any of the races.

My Prediction in the State Senate Race for District 25

Rep. Kendall Van Dyk has just announced his intention to challenge incumbent Senator Roy Brown in district 25. This was known all the way back to the last session, but Van Dyk formally announced yesterday.

I'm not going to make a prediction on the outcome, but I will say that this will be the most expensive state senate race ever. Both Van Dyk and Brown have already done fundraisers around the state, and Van Dyk has even done one in Washington, DC. Both are good campaigners as well. The outcome will depend on hard work and the electorate's mood on state and national issues like health care, cap & trade, the federal deficit, the state budget, and more.

This will be an interesting race to watch. Who do you think will win the race between "Big Oil Roy" and "Tax Hike Van Dyk"?

Schweitzer for Interior Secretary?

With the news that Governor Ritter of Colorado will not seek re-election, Democrats in CO are scrambling to find a candidate to keep the seat. The Obama adminstration is interested in having a Democrat as governor there to help the President's re-election chances in that state and in the West overall. The best candidate would be Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, who is a former senator from CO and who has never lost a statewide election there.

Here's where the speculation starts - reports say Salazar has interest in a gubernatorial run and may have even secured the blessing of Obama. Governor Schweitzer is already being mentioned as a possible replacement. Could the Governor be heading to DC in the next few months?

Would Schweitzer even have interest in such as job, you ask? Absolutely. Since he is term-limited from running for Governor again, many have speculated about his next gig. To the press he always said he was not interested in a cabinet position. Behind closed doors, however, he was definitely looking for an appointment even back in November of 2008.

And who wouldn't want to leave that job right now? Revenue projections are falling every month and it is possible that Montana will join the other 48 states that have deficits by the end of this biennium. If he secured the appointment soon enough, he could leave when there was still a few million dollars in the bank. Not a bad time to move on to the next thing a little early.

Now here's another layer of speculation that already makes two assumptions. If Salazar runs for governor of Colorado AND Schweitzer is appointed in his place, will Lt. Governor John Bohlinger be a Democrat or Republican? He has always declared himself a Republican, and the MT Democrats used that effectively to have a bi-partisan ticket, but the MT GOP always called him a traitor. Republicans claim he had a (D) by his name when his name appeared on the ballot, so that made him a Democrat. If Bohlinger becomes Governor, both camps may reverse their positions. Oh the irony.

It's fun to hear the gossip and go through the "what ifs", but just keep in mind that it's still just speculation.

UPDATE: The Fix is reporting that Salazar will not run and he will back Denver Mayor Hickenlooper instead. Speculation over.

Re-Elect Numbers Bad for Incumbents

A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has bad news for congressional incumbents. Just over a third of people (38%) would vote to re-elect their own representative, while almost half (49%) would rather put in someone new. That doesn't have anything to do with being a Republican or Democrat. It's simply voters' feelings regarding incumbents.

Our own P-base poll showed similar results for Montana legislative incumbents. In the poll of 600 Montana voters (4.1% margin of error) last month, 34% were willing to re-elect their current legislator, while 46% wanted to look at someone new. That is the lowest re-elect numbers we've seen in the history of the P-base poll.

Are voters mad as hell and ready to say they aren't going to take it anymore?  There is still almost eleven months to go before November of 2010, so much can change. Right now, though, it doesn't look good for people who are currently serving in public office.

New Poll Out on Montanans' Views of Economy, Business and Elections

 

Poll Shows Pulse of Montana Voters

Respondents Give Answers on Economic, Political and Business Issues

The Power Base (P-Base) is an annual scientific poll of 600 Montana voters on a variety of business and political issues with a margin of error of 4.1%. The poll is commissioned by the Montana Chamber of Commerce and other business groups to determine what regular Montanans think about important economic issues facing our state. Here are some of the results:

Economic Development

The unemployment levels are a top concern for Montanans. 40% listed it as the top problem facing our state, and the next highest problem, health care, was a third of that level at 15%. Montanans want to get back to work, and they are looking for businesses, not government, to provide the jobs.

As in prior surveys, the P-base shows Montanans want to see more business growth, especially in high wage businesses like the natural resource industries. For example, 78% of Montana voters want the state to encourage more timber harvesting, 76% want more oil & gas development, 71% want more coal development and 70% want more mining. Almost two-thirds of Montanans say the state Land Board should go forward with the Otter Creek coal tracts leasing as well, which is an issue the Board will take up at its December 21^st meeting.

“The message from the survey is clear: Montanans want to see the state move towards long-term, sustainable growth by increasing natural resource development, improving our business climate, and creating more good-paying jobs,” said Jon Bennion, Government Relations Director for the Montana Chamber.”

Montanans are still pessimistic about the national economy. 53% of voters believe the U.S.’s economy is on the wrong track as opposed to 24% who think we are on the right track. Voters believe the state’s economy is better off with 41% saying we’re on the right track versus 34% saying wrong track. 

Health Care

Respondents in the poll expressed significant satisfaction levels with their own health care insurance. Almost three-quarters of those polled (74%) said they were satisfied, while only 15% said they were dissatisfied. Half of Montanans want Washington, D.C. to scrap the current health care proposals and draft new legislation that would address rising costs.

Concerns of Voters

The P-base is also a good opportunity to see what financial concerns are on the minds of voters. For the fourth straight year, health care costs continue to be a top concern at 24% and high taxes came in second at 18%. Additionally, addressing the unemployment situation is the top issue (18%) voters want addressed in the coming elections, and health care (17%) is a not-so-distant second concern of voters at 15%. 59% said government in general is getting too involved and spending too much money, while only 31% said government wasn’t doing enough on issues like education, health care and the environment. 

Elections

When it comes to candidate endorsements, voters respect candidates who get stamps of approval from business groups, like chambers of commerce, agriculture groups and more.

When asked whether a Montana Chamber endorsement of a candidate would influence their voter, 51% of voters said it would have a positive effect compared with only 16% who said it would have a negative effect (35% net postitive). Even more popular are agriculture groups with 68% positive to only 7% negative (61% net positive). Trial lawyers (-40% net negative), environmental groups (-18% net negative) and labor unions (-9% net negative) scored low in the poll.

When asked about the upcoming elections for the Montana state legislature, voters are more likely (46%) to want to replace their local legislator rather than re-elect them (34%). Additionally, Republicans have a slight edge going into the legislative elections. 32% prefer GOP candidates for the legislature while 25% prefer Democrats.

“Candidates for the legislature need to focus on the economy, jobs, and growing the business sector,” explained Bennion, “Voters are worried about how much the government is trying to do, so candidates need to offer solutions that center around responsible development of our natural resources, controlling government deficits, and free enterprise.”

2009 Election Analysis and 2010 Preview for Montana

GOPers are celebrating and predicting 2010 gains while Dems are largely dismissing the results as unimportant losses based on local factors. I think it's somewhere in between.

As most Democrats point out, these elections aren't always the best indicators of what will happen a year from now. A year is a lifetime in politics. So much can happen with the economy (good and bad), the war on terror, and big issues like health care reform, cap-and-trade and card check. Plus, NJ Democratic Governor Corzine was damaged goods and the Creigh Deeds, the Viriginia Democratic candidate for governor, ran a weak campaign.

But that cannot explain away the decisive results of these two elections. Something was energizing the Republican base, which hasn't happened since 2004. In short, Republicans aren't necessarily inspired to vote for Republicans, but they are getting ticked off at what is happening in Washington. This discontent is translating into higher participation from the GOP base, while loyal Democrats are seemingly uninspired. If this continues, Democrats should be concerned about noticeable losses in 2010.

In Montana, without a big race (I predict Rehberg will do well again) to draw independent voters, the 2010 legislative races will be about which party can get more of their base to show up. In 1998, the last time the U.S. House race was the top race, Montana saw its lowest voter turnout ever. If the GOP base continues to have big concerns about national developments, that may bring more Republicans out to vote in legislative elections while Democrats may be more likely to stay at home.

The question remains, however, if the Republican base will continue to stay energized. Polls show that Republicans don't really even like their own GOP leaders, so gains will have to come from their distaste of the Democratic agenda. If the economy gets worse, that may get more independents out to vote. When it comes to swing voters, it's still the economy, stupid.

Voting Fail

This Election Day image is brought to you courtesy of www.failblog.org:

Come back tomorrow for commentary on today's elections in MT, NY, NJ, and VA, and a 2010 Election preview.

Chamber to Host Campaign Schools

Every election year the Montana Chamber teams up with the Montana Electric Cooperative Association and the Montana Credit Union Network to host a series of non-partisan campaign schools around the state. We are still getting some of the details worked out, but we have some dates and locations set:

January 26th - Great Falls @ the Montana Electric Cooperative Association Headquarters

January 27th - Missoula @ the Hilton Garden Inn

January 28th - Bozeman @ the Hilton Garden Inn

January 29th - Billings @ the Hilton Garden Inn

If you are thinking about running for office (local, legislative or statewide), if you think you may run for office some day, or even if you plan on volunteering on someone's campaign, this school is a great place to learn about the fundamental elements of a successful campaign. Topics covered include development of a plan, media/communications, fundraising, following campaign laws, getting out the vote and more.

For more information on the schools, contact Sharon at sharonm@mtco-ops.com.

2010 U.S. House Race in Montana a Snoozer

CQ Politics has released its list of the most competitive congressional races for the 2010 cycle. Montana is not one of them. The lone seat, held by five-term incumbent Denny Rebherg, is listed as "safe." It's a little more than a year before the election, and that can be a lifetime in politics. But something really bad would have to happen for Rehberg to make this race competitive. The only other statewide race next cycle is for a single Montana Supreme Court spot, currently held by Justice Leaphart. It is unknown whether he will run for reelection.

Looks like the real races will be in competitive seats for Montana's Legislature. It's also quite likely that we'll see some interesting ballot initiatives.

Another Montana Primary Upset in the Works?

In 2008, politicos were shocked when two unknown, obscure candidates beat establishment candidates and emerged as the winners of their respective races. Perennial candidate Bob Kelleher won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and John Driscoll won the Democratic nomination for U.S. House.

Fundraising numbers for the second quarter were just released in the 2010 contest for U.S. House, and it looks like another upset may be in the works in one of the primaries. Incumbent Denny Rehberg has done quite well and will probably face no primary opponent on the GOP side. On the Democratic side, state Democratic Party chair Dennis MacDonald will face off against a young, relatively unknown Missoula lawyer, Tyler Gernant. In the second quarter, Gernant outraised MacDonald by more than $10,000. Could this 20-something challenger take out the establishment candidate?

MacDonald probably isn't too worried about the money issue. He is a fairly wealthy former trial lawyer who can probably afford to throw in some bucks of his own. Still, this may turn into more of a race than he'd like.