Montana Main Street Blog

Will Montana Go Blue in 2012?

If Obama can hold on to some of this big states he grabbed in the 2008 election, Montana is poised to become his biggest target to flip in 2012. Montana narrowly supported McCain, but it was the most competitive presidential contest our state had seen since the 1992 election. McCain ended up with 49.7% of the vote, while Obama was right behind with 47.2%.

47.2% for a Democratic candidate for president is good in Montana. Although we gave Clinton our electoral votes in 1992, he only won a plurality when Ross Perot took a good chunk away from George H. W. Bush. The last Democratic presidential candidate we gave a majority to was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. So, Obama's plan to target Montana after just a narrow loss is probably a smart move.

It's pretty early to start talking about targeted states, however. Obama hasn't quite finished his first six months in office. Elections start earlier each cycle, but there are so many things that could happen before we get to 2012. First, and foremost, is what happens with the economy. If the economy doesn't show significant improvement after the large amounts spent on stimulus, this could be trouble for Obama in Montana. In addition, it's very likely that Obama will encounter a big new foreign policy problem, like North Korean aggression or problems with Iran. Perhaps "new" isn't the right word - maybe escalating. And as the article points out, he can't look to left when it comes to environmental issues and gun issues.

And don't forget we have one big thing before the next presidential election. It's called 2010!

Election 2010: Who Will Control the Montana Senate?

In the Montana state Senate there are 15 open Senate seats due to term limits, which is almost a full third of that body that is guaranteed not to be back in 2011. There could be more depending on people who decide not to run again or who are defeated for reelection in the primary or general election.

 

A staggering 10 Republicans senators are term-limited. All of those senators are in leaning to solid Republican seats. Five Democrats are term limited. Unlike last session where Democrats had to play defense, Republicans will have to work hard to maintain their majority in the state Senate.

 

The two biggest battlegrounds for the 2010 election will be in District 25 in Billings (Roy Brown) and District 39 (Terry Murphy). District 25 is a Democratic leaning area, so Brown will have to work hard for reelection. Representative Kendall Van Dyk is rumored to be mulling a potential challenge. District 39 is a toss-up seat with a history of supporting Republican candidates. It is unknown whether Murphy will run for reelection, but term-limited Representative Jill Cohenour is expected to run for that seat. Her husband ran against Murphy and lost in 2006.

 

Other possible battlegrounds may develop depending on what challengers come forward, what issues are hot next year, fundraising, and good old fashioned hard work. These seats include: District 17 – Seat of term-limited Senator Ken Hansen (D); District 29 – Seat of term-limited Senator Dan McGee (R); District 12 – Seat of Senator Mitch Tropila (D); and District 13 – Seat of term-limited Senator Joe Tropila.

 

So who will control the state Senate in 2011? Democrats have a decent shot at tying things up 25-25 if they take advantage of some of these opportunities. If not, Republicans can still look forward to having a very slim majority.

Employee Forced Choice Act Hits Congress

Kudos to the Billings Gazette editorial board members who recognize the irony in a union bill (Card Check) that takes away a worker's right. Also, check out the letter to the editor from the President/CEO of the Billings Chamber who also weighed in on the card check bill that was introduced in the House and Senate this week.

The Montana Chamber submitted an op-ed of it's own yesterday, so make sure to be on the lookout for that piece. There is a lot of chatter about this issue including Obama's reassurance of his support, the lack of co-sponsorship from Senator Baucus and Senator Tester (who were co-sponsors last session), a few Southern Democrats who have expressed a lack of enthusiasm for the idea, and Senator McCaskill's opinion that Democrats didn't have the votes to close off debate in the Senate. In addition, I'm reading a thorough study that was done that shows huge negative economic consequences if card check is passed. I'll do a summary of it as soon as I finish it.

There will be a lot more information, debate and grassroots over the next month or so to stop this anti-business, anti-worker bill.

Gallup Poll: Montana Politics Competitive

We didn't really need a poll to tell us this information, but Gallup has published a report detailing the most current political leanings of all 50 state and showing that Montana is up for grabs in elections. 35 states show Democratic majorities, only 5 states show Republican majorities and 10 states, including Montana, are classified as toss-ups.

In the last election, McCain won the state with a small majority, Democrats swept all statewide offices, Republicans took control of the state Senate, and the two parties split control of the legislature. The results of the Gallup poll in Montana reflect what we've seen since 2002 - the return of more competitive political environments after a decade of strong Republican results.

Election Day Replaced With Election Season

As we've noted in the past, the amount of early voting has grown considerably in the past 10 years in Montana. A new report shows that this trend has also gone up nationwide. Almost a full third of the country voted early, and the numbers in Montana are even higher.

Obama's campaign did a masterful job at this in the fall. Karl Rove knew that get-out-the-vote efforts, including early voting, were key. The political party that can best master this area of early voting will have huge advantages in elections to come.

Montana Elections: 2010 and Beyond

I know what you're saying - this guy is so sick and twisted to even think about posting on future elections after we just got done with one that everyone is happy to have in the rearview mirror. Sorry, I can't help myself. I am a political junkie.

Despite the fact that most would rather think of just about anything but politics, it is worth noting that in Montana, we already know where the battlegrounds are for the next election cycle. First, Denny Rehberg will be at the top of the ticket. There will be no election for governor or U.S. Senate, so Congress could be a battle if the Democrats find a competitive candidate. Since Rehberg was elected in 2000, he has soundly defeated all opponents. Former trial lawyer and current Democratic Party Chair, Dennis MacDonald is looking at the seat, and I'm sure a few others are considering it.

In the state Senate, Republicans will have to play more defense next cycle. According to our P-base poll, there are more swing districts currently held by Republicans that are up in 2010. Senate District 25, which is currently occupied by Roy Brown, will be one of the Democrats' top targets. SD 39, currently held by Terry Murphy, will also be a battleground. Other potential competitive seats held by Republicans include SD 28 (incumbent senator Jeff Essmann) and SD 29(term-limited senator, Dan McGee). So Billings can once again be a major center of political action. Republicans will likely target SD 12 (incumbent senator Mitch Tropila), SD 17 (term-limited senator Kim Hansen).

And with all representatives in the House up for re-election in 2010, the House will once again be a battleground. In the past three elections, which are the elections for the current legislative map, the makeup of the House has been very close. In 2005, it was split 50-50, just like it will likely be this session. In 2007, Republicans had a 50-49 majority, with the one Constitution member caucusing with them. There could be up to 20-24 competitive races, but it's much too early to tell.

Because few major statewide races will be going on in 2010, I predict a record number of ballot initiatives. There's no shortage of ideas that people want to put directly to voters. Once the legislative session is over, we will see who is serious about bringing something forward.

And for 2012, well, that's a long time away. The governor is the only statewide office where there has to be a change, due to term-limits. The field for that office could be wide open on both sides. For now, we'll just do our best to work with the current administration on issues important to Montana businesses. We look forward to working with all lawmakers this next session to move Montana towards long-term, sustainable growth.  

All Eyes on HD 63 in Bozeman

There may be a few recounts around the state that add uncertainty to the final legislative makeup numbers, but right now it appears that HD 63 in eastern Bozeman will decide which party controls the state House. This swing district featured a competitive battle between Democrat incumbent JP Pomnichowski and Republican challenger Tom Burnett. According to a source of mine, the tally is around 2709 for Burnett to 2789 for Pomnichowski with two precincts left to count.

If my current tally is correct, Republicans have won 50 seats in the House to the Democrats' 49. If the Republicans win HD 63, they will control the House. If the Democrats win, there will be a tie in the state House. In the case of a tie, the party of the Governor (in this case a Democrat) is given the opportunity to select the speaker and organize the House. In 2005, the state House was tied 50-50, and committee leadership was shared.

The reasons for the delay have been explained here at New West. The delay may have an impact on the Secretary of State's race as well.

Republicans are projected to control the state Senate by a 27-23 margin.

UPDATE: My sources tell me that at the end of the count, Pomnichowski was ahead. A 50-50 House looks likely.

Montana's Choice for President 2008

Although Montana has typically supported Republicans for President in the last 60 years, Democrat Barack Obama made it clear early on that he wanted to put Montanain play. Only LBJ in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992 were able capture Big Sky Country’s electoral votes, and Clintondid so with only 38% of the vote.

Obama visited the state five times, and sent his vice-presidential running mate Joe Biden once. His campaign developed lists of volunteers, spent money on television and radio ads, and implemented an impressive get-out-the-vote program for early voting and Election Day. John McCain, on the other hand, failed to even step foot in Montana or send his running mate, Sarah Palin. In the final few weeks of the campaign, the Republican National Committee spent money on radio ads, but McCain’s presence was noticeably lacking.

Strong conservatives and constitutionalists scored a coup back in August by putting Ron Paul on the ballot. Poll and pundits (including myself) expected Paul to take anywhere from 4-5% of the vote. In the end, it was more like 2%.

 

Despite largely ignoring the state to compete in larger battlegrounds, McCain captured Montana's three electoral votes and proved Republicans still have advantages here at the top of the ticket.

 

Montana Legislature Results 2008

Despite a tidal wave of blue, and well funded campaigns, it appears the Democrats were unable to take either house of the Montana legislature. The results are not yet final, and there will be at least three legislative recounts as far as I can tell, but it looks like Republicans bucked the national and state trends in legislative races. Here's what I can tell from nonofficial results:

MONTANA SENATE:

Republicans will control the state Senate with a likely 27-23 majority. They lost SD 27 (Branae won), but they picked up SD 2 (Zinke won), SD 7 (Hinkle won), SD 18 (Brendan won), and SD 22 (Taylor Brown won). Don't think any recounts are likely, but I could be wrong.

MONTANA HOUSE:

Republicans may have maintained their one seat majority in the House, depending on the outcome of HD 63 (Pomnichowski v. Burnett). The results haven't all come in yet. As of this moment, it looks like Republicans have 50 seats and Democrats have 49.

Some seats did switch hands, however. Democrats picked up HD 8 (Steenson won), HD 12 (Fleming won), HD 38 (Getz won), and HD 59 (Beck won). Republicans picked up HD 3 (Dee Brown won), HD 24 (Hoven won), and HD 34 (Warburton won). Recounts are likely in HD 8, 24, and 58.

Check back for updates throughout the day.

U.S. House Race in Montana 2008

Four-term Republican congressman Denny Rehberg had no trouble winning a fifth term to the U.S. House. His opponent, John Driscoll, won the Democratic nomination without campaigning or spending any money. After pledging to conduct his general election campaign in the same way, denouncing coal, and suggesting he would vote for Rehberg if the incumbent didn't support the federal financial bailout package, it was clear the incumbent would have no difficulties. Rehberg attained one of his highest vote totals yet in his victory.