Montana Main Street Blog

Bozeman Tennis Court Debacle

The city of Bozeman's decision to use stimulus funds to build tennis courts grabbed the attention of many conservative news outlets, including Fox News and the Drudge Report.

Thinking he may have an opportunity to get on the "fiscal conservative" side of this issue, Governor Schweitzer showed up to Bozeman City Council to express his displeasure with this poor use of funds. What he got was a mayor ready to stand up to him. Here is the exchange as reported by the Flathead Beacon:

Schweitzer: I didn’t come here to blame the city council. You absolutely have the right to do this. You have the green light through the Department of Commerce because they can’t turn anybody down. That was the legislation. It was not the intent of the dollars that came to Montana

Krauss: So if you’re perceived as being a person who has attacked the city of Bozeman. And maybe because you’ve been used by the media or you’ve used the media to do just that.

Schweitzer: Mayor, what were my words? Do you recall?

Krauss: It was a quote about how you did not approve of this. Didn’t approve of this. That this wasn’t appropriate and you didn’t approve of this.

Schweitzer: That’s correct and that’s what I’m saying today.

Krauss: Right. But we have a letter from your administration approving it.

Schweitzer: Sure.

Krauss: So you approved it before you disapproved it.

The report from the Chronicle also brought up how the council questioned the Governor's use of his airplane to fly down to the council meeting, and whether that was a good use of taxpayer dollars. Interesting stuff.

My Prediction in the State Senate Race for District 25

Rep. Kendall Van Dyk has just announced his intention to challenge incumbent Senator Roy Brown in district 25. This was known all the way back to the last session, but Van Dyk formally announced yesterday.

I'm not going to make a prediction on the outcome, but I will say that this will be the most expensive state senate race ever. Both Van Dyk and Brown have already done fundraisers around the state, and Van Dyk has even done one in Washington, DC. Both are good campaigners as well. The outcome will depend on hard work and the electorate's mood on state and national issues like health care, cap & trade, the federal deficit, the state budget, and more.

This will be an interesting race to watch. Who do you think will win the race between "Big Oil Roy" and "Tax Hike Van Dyk"?

4-1 Vote in Favor of Otter Creek

After a few hours of public testimony regarding the Otter Creek coal tracts in eastern Montana, the Land Board decided to go ahead with putting the tracts up for bid. The vote was 4-1 in favor, with Denise Juneau being the lone dissenter.

A couple of thing struck me as odd - the first one being that the state's Superintendent of Public Instruction (the head of the K-12 system in Montana) voted down an opportunity to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in new money for our schools. I've never hear a superintendent say they have enough money, but maybe she's going to make that case in the 2011 Legislature. There won't be a big surplus to start with, so schools are going to have to deal with less coming their way unless they think that Montanans should pay higher taxes.

The other part of the vote that was interesting was the minimum bid amount required. It's set at 25 cents a ton, which is two and a half times more than the market price set by the Arch Coal and Great Northern Properties agreement. Some have speculated this was the Land Board's way of killing the project without a "no" vote. That may be a bit cynical. There are 45 days for a company to bid, so we'll see if there are any takers. If there aren't the Land Board should come back with a more reasonable price.

Either way, kudos to the Governor, State Auditor, Secretary of State and Attorney General for agreeing with the vast majority of Montanans by at least voting in favor of putting the tracts up for bid.

Re-Elect Numbers Bad for Incumbents

A NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has bad news for congressional incumbents. Just over a third of people (38%) would vote to re-elect their own representative, while almost half (49%) would rather put in someone new. That doesn't have anything to do with being a Republican or Democrat. It's simply voters' feelings regarding incumbents.

Our own P-base poll showed similar results for Montana legislative incumbents. In the poll of 600 Montana voters (4.1% margin of error) last month, 34% were willing to re-elect their current legislator, while 46% wanted to look at someone new. That is the lowest re-elect numbers we've seen in the history of the P-base poll.

Are voters mad as hell and ready to say they aren't going to take it anymore?  There is still almost eleven months to go before November of 2010, so much can change. Right now, though, it doesn't look good for people who are currently serving in public office.

New Poll Out on Montanans' Views of Economy, Business and Elections

 

Poll Shows Pulse of Montana Voters

Respondents Give Answers on Economic, Political and Business Issues

The Power Base (P-Base) is an annual scientific poll of 600 Montana voters on a variety of business and political issues with a margin of error of 4.1%. The poll is commissioned by the Montana Chamber of Commerce and other business groups to determine what regular Montanans think about important economic issues facing our state. Here are some of the results:

Economic Development

The unemployment levels are a top concern for Montanans. 40% listed it as the top problem facing our state, and the next highest problem, health care, was a third of that level at 15%. Montanans want to get back to work, and they are looking for businesses, not government, to provide the jobs.

As in prior surveys, the P-base shows Montanans want to see more business growth, especially in high wage businesses like the natural resource industries. For example, 78% of Montana voters want the state to encourage more timber harvesting, 76% want more oil & gas development, 71% want more coal development and 70% want more mining. Almost two-thirds of Montanans say the state Land Board should go forward with the Otter Creek coal tracts leasing as well, which is an issue the Board will take up at its December 21^st meeting.

“The message from the survey is clear: Montanans want to see the state move towards long-term, sustainable growth by increasing natural resource development, improving our business climate, and creating more good-paying jobs,” said Jon Bennion, Government Relations Director for the Montana Chamber.”

Montanans are still pessimistic about the national economy. 53% of voters believe the U.S.’s economy is on the wrong track as opposed to 24% who think we are on the right track. Voters believe the state’s economy is better off with 41% saying we’re on the right track versus 34% saying wrong track. 

Health Care

Respondents in the poll expressed significant satisfaction levels with their own health care insurance. Almost three-quarters of those polled (74%) said they were satisfied, while only 15% said they were dissatisfied. Half of Montanans want Washington, D.C. to scrap the current health care proposals and draft new legislation that would address rising costs.

Concerns of Voters

The P-base is also a good opportunity to see what financial concerns are on the minds of voters. For the fourth straight year, health care costs continue to be a top concern at 24% and high taxes came in second at 18%. Additionally, addressing the unemployment situation is the top issue (18%) voters want addressed in the coming elections, and health care (17%) is a not-so-distant second concern of voters at 15%. 59% said government in general is getting too involved and spending too much money, while only 31% said government wasn’t doing enough on issues like education, health care and the environment. 

Elections

When it comes to candidate endorsements, voters respect candidates who get stamps of approval from business groups, like chambers of commerce, agriculture groups and more.

When asked whether a Montana Chamber endorsement of a candidate would influence their voter, 51% of voters said it would have a positive effect compared with only 16% who said it would have a negative effect (35% net postitive). Even more popular are agriculture groups with 68% positive to only 7% negative (61% net positive). Trial lawyers (-40% net negative), environmental groups (-18% net negative) and labor unions (-9% net negative) scored low in the poll.

When asked about the upcoming elections for the Montana state legislature, voters are more likely (46%) to want to replace their local legislator rather than re-elect them (34%). Additionally, Republicans have a slight edge going into the legislative elections. 32% prefer GOP candidates for the legislature while 25% prefer Democrats.

“Candidates for the legislature need to focus on the economy, jobs, and growing the business sector,” explained Bennion, “Voters are worried about how much the government is trying to do, so candidates need to offer solutions that center around responsible development of our natural resources, controlling government deficits, and free enterprise.”

How the State Government Benefits from the Satterlee decision

State fiscal analysts and lawmakers have been waiting for the decision in Satterlee to come out because the state government's general fund would be on the hook for some of the tab. Since the decision would have required payouts to people covered under the Old Fund, the state would have had to pay up to $130 million to pay off the liability. That can erase a budget surplus in Montana pretty quick.

I bet most state lawmakers are happy they don't have to deal with that price tag. Small businesses are celebrating as well.

Governor Finally Sees Work Comp as an Issue

Last week, the Governor's office asked the Montana State Fund to show more information on why work comp rates have doubled since 2000. His tone in the article is rather harsh to the State Fund without looking at the real reasons of increasing costs, including his own opposition to good work comp reform bills and his office's silence on bills that would have raised costs.

In the 2009 Legislative Session, small businesses asked for clarity in the work comp laws regarding issues of course and scope. The bill, SB 371, would have dealt with an area of work comp that has allowed non-work related injuries into the system, thereby driving up costs for Montana businesses. The bill received big bi-partisan support from both houses, but the Governor vetoed the bill. I hope this new concern about work comp rates gets him to reconsider his position on course and scope for the next session. We'll definitely be bringing that one back.  

In other work comp areas, the Governor's office stood silent on legislation that would have raised the cost of work comp rates. The Governor's office is not one to shy away from lobbying on bills in committee, so the lack of any testimony from any executive departments on these bills was interesting. For example, SB 285 would have encouraged more attorney involvement in work comp cases by allowing attorney fee awards in cases where denial of benefits was perfectly reasonable. This would have certainly added cost to work comp costs, but no one from his office opposed the bill.

To be fair, the Governor did start a good council a few years ago to study the cost-drivers in work comp and to build consensus for good reforms. He should probably read some of their findings about medical costs, injury rates and return-to-work problems to find out more about why our rates are the 2nd highest in the country. But when good reforms come his way, he should also really jump on board. Glad to hear he is (hopefully) thinking about reversing his positions on some of these issues.

Property Tax Reappraisal Problems for Small Businesses

There is a lot of blame being shifted on the issue of property tax reappraisal figures that may cause many Montana small businesses to pay much more on their property tax bill.

Republican leaders called a press conference yesterday to point out this problem, and speculating that a special session may be needed to fix the problem. Many legislators are placing the blame on the Department of Revenue for getting the estimates to them very late and incorrectly. This has led to reappraisal figures that are higher than the Legislature intended.

The Governor placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of the legislature as a whole:

"People who have unfairly had their taxes raised, of course they can protest it. That will work for some. For others, they should look to find a legislature that is more competent than this last one, and they can fix it in the next legislative session."

Wow. Did he really say that?

Whoever is to blame, it appears the Governor and the Department of Revenue are not too anxious to do anything about it. Even in this bad economy, the Governor doesn't appear all too eager to help our the thousands of small businesses that could be hurt by this mistake. His statements go back and forth between saying "there isn't really a problem" to "if there is a problem, it wasn't my fault and I don't want to do anything about it."

We will continue to look at this situation and see whether it merits a call for a special session. Now is not the time to be over-collecting taxes from Montana's job creators.

2010 U.S. House Race in Montana a Snoozer

CQ Politics has released its list of the most competitive congressional races for the 2010 cycle. Montana is not one of them. The lone seat, held by five-term incumbent Denny Rebherg, is listed as "safe." It's a little more than a year before the election, and that can be a lifetime in politics. But something really bad would have to happen for Rehberg to make this race competitive. The only other statewide race next cycle is for a single Montana Supreme Court spot, currently held by Justice Leaphart. It is unknown whether he will run for reelection.

Looks like the real races will be in competitive seats for Montana's Legislature. It's also quite likely that we'll see some interesting ballot initiatives.

Montana State Government Revenues Down

As reported here in today's Helena IR, state government revenue collections aren't quite what the Legislature had hoped for back in April.

At this point, it's impossible to know exactly where the state is financially because the fiscal year just ended on June 30. There will be money that comes in that is 2009 money, not the current fiscal year of 2010. Still, there are signs that collections won't be as high as expected. We may be dipping into that $300 million budget ending-fund balance sooner than many thought.

The shortfall can be attributed to lower collections in personal income taxes, sin taxes, natural resource and oil taxes. Many of the graphs looked okay this time last year, but collections have been way down in the past six months. The state revenue analyst said this made him worry about fiscal year 2010 and 2011.

We can take comfort that Montana isn't seeing the budget woes of states like California. Generally, Montana lags behind the rest of the country when going into a recession and often lags coming out as well. Let's hope Montana leads the country out of this one.